Narrower contraction in leading index (LI) signals improved growth momentum in coming months.
PETALING JAYA: MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) has reaffirmed its forecast that Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will achieve a 4.2% growth in 2023 following the narrower contraction in the leading index (LI) recorded in August 2023.
The research firm also projected that Malaysia’s GDP will rise to 4.7% next year.
Yesterday, data released by the statistics department showed the LI, a tool utilised for predicting economic trends four to six months ahead, narrowed by 0.5% to 109.7 points in August 2023.
It had previously declined by 1% in July 2023.
MIDF Research said in a note today that it viewed the narrower contraction in the LI as signalling better growth momentum in the coming months, although the continued decline indicated that the momentum would remain moderate.
On the coincident index (CI) which rose 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August 2023, the research house said the sustained expansion in CI indicated that the current economic growth remained supported mainly by increases in domestic economic activities.
“We believe the LI will show further improvement and the CI will continue to grow in the coming months, as we foresee sequential growth momentum will gradually improve on the back of recovering external trade and sustained expansion in domestic demand,” it said.